Manny Ramirez from the SF Chronicle - 2/27/09

So I’m starting to notice that the San Francisco Chronicle puts out some cool pictures in the newspaper that aren’t available on-line…at least specific to Manny Ramirez.  This picture came out on Friday, just after the Dodgers and Giants played their first spring training game together (See last post).  I like this picture because it kind of sums of what is going on with Manny.  He is bigger than life at this point, and the game seems really small in comparison.

This whole Manny situation up here in SF is comical to me.  The Giants fans are salivating that the Dodgers can’t sign him, but that the Giants are in a perfect position to jump in and grab him.  Note to Giants fans – the Giants have yet to make him an offer.  If it took the Dodgers 4 times with nothing, how long it will take you when we all know he would rather play in LA?  I just really see the fans hoping he will come, but it doesn’t seem realistic.  Manny truly is still all over the talk shows and broadcasts up here, and now more than ever since it seems the Dodgers can’t get it done.

What’s going on with Manny and Scott Boras is a classic case of bad negotiations.  I guess you could say it is good negotiations in that both are holding to their wants, but it’s bad because the deal isn’t getting done.  They are fighting a public battle and both trying to keep respect even though they don’t respect each other.  The LA Times has done a fantastic job keeping the fans in the loop.  Apparently it comes down to deferred money versus actual money.

I honestly think the Dodgers lost major money last year.  I bet with the stadium fixes, and less people coming to the ballpark initially, that Frank McCourt took a hit.  True he went after his mansions, but I wonder if that was more a matter of housing prices falling rather than bringing in lots of money. His goal is to defer, defer, defer this year, so it makes sense that he wants to really come out in the plus next year to make up for this year.  Call it a hunch, but it would make sense.

The worst part for us fans is that what are we really getting with Manny at this point?  He is now a rental for 1 year until he can opt out to try and get a better contract.  Once he opts out, we get to go through this whole circus all over again next year.  Obviously Scott Boras and Frank McCourt aren’t getting along, so what is going to change? My concern is do the Dodgers really want a player who only half way wants to be there?  What a joke to the Dodgers as an organization.  Of course we want him, but how awkward will it be?

How do the Dodgers fix this?  Keep their word and hold strong.  Either hold to deferment and say no to Scott’s offer with a new one, or let Manny go.  I told you in a previous post that Manny had the leverage, but right now the Dodgers do as the only real taker for 2 years.  If they keep showing that time is running out for a good deal, then Manny will have to jump on board.  I saw a great post to an SF Chronicle article that recommended the Dodgers lower their offer by $500,000 a day until they reach the league minimum.  Not a bad idea.

Here’s an interesting idea for a blog post (Maybe I’ll have to ask Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness or Jon Weisman to do this one), how many of Scott Boras’ clients have actually been on teams that won the World Series?  Obviously Manny did it in Boston, but really, how many have rings?  What I’m really getting at is if Scott’s clients just bring in revenue, or if they can really get it done?  I have a hunch that less than half have won because if you pay their big money, you take away money from filling in a good team around them.   Who knows?  I’d love to hear comments on that one.

Manny Ramirez with MLB.com

Let me be specific with this.  I don’t know if it will be 3 yrs with an option, or just 4 years, but I do believe Manny will get 4 total years with the Dodgers.

This off-season has been all about leverage.  The Dodgers played theirs, while so did Boras and Ramirez.  In the end though – who will end up with the last leverage?  Manny.  Absolutely Manny, and not the Dodgers.  There may be a little bit of a compromise, but it will be the Dodgers who will have to flinch first.

Manny is a future Hall of Famer.  He knows it.  He wants to add to his resume, but time is on his side.  He’s already made his millions and he’s just looking for the right deal to end his career.  He can wait all season if he needs to.

The Dodgers on the other hand can say they can wait until mid-season like last year, but in reality, the Dodgers have a lot more circumstances that will affect them eventually giving in.  First, the fans.  The fans will start to put significant pressure on the Dodgers.  This may come by comments, but it will more come by staying away from the ballpark, and more specifically Spring Training.   The Dodgers invested a lot in a new facility, and in Dodger stadium, and they need a return.  Manny can bring that return.

The Dodgers will also receive pressure if the team starts out slow.  If the pitching falters, and even more if the offense sputters (even during Spring Training), the pressure will be on to fix it, and to add Manny.  The more pressure, the sooner the Dodgers give in.

Manny is the star.  He can produce.  He did produce, and he will produce.  Will he be the best left fielder in 3 years?  Probably not, but if he can rack like he did last year, it will be put aside.  That in my mind is why he will eventually be signed to his terms.  He’s told Joe Torre he wants longevity.  If the Dodgers really want him, he will get his deal.  He’s drawn this out until Spring Training, and he will keep it going as long as he needs to.

The Dodgers have given him a locker in Arizona, and they keep saying they want him, but Manny knows eventually he will have the leverage he needs.  Make no mistake, Scott Boras knows this too.

I’m calling it right now.  Manny will get 4 total years with the Dodgers.

East Valley Tribune Logo

So, I love Dodger Blogs. I’m biased because I’m writing one, but I really do like them. When you live far away from local Dodger news, anytime you can grab a morsel and feel close to the Mother Ship, you just feel home again.

This is especially true on a day like today. Why today, the eleventh of February, in the year of our Lord 2009? Well, according to three different blogs, the Dodgers are going to sign Manny Ramirez by tomorrow, as well as Orlando Hudson. Will it happen? Who knows, but the suspense is great.

Here was my route:

I started on Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness which let me back to MLBRumors.com.

This is on the Dodger News page, but they didn’t break the story, the East Valley Tribune did here.

I also saw it on Dodger Dugout.  Once you see it three times, it’s good enough for me.  I never would have seen this if I was just going to Foxsports, or the Dodgers website.

There’s a lot of weight on this rumor, but if he comes through, the guy will forever establish himself as legitimate. If he doesn’t, not a huge party foul, because the hope of it happening was great, and how can he really control the actions of the Dodgers and especially Manny?

Nice points to Scott Boras today. Abreu signs with the Angels and Dunn signs with the Nationals. This means the Dodgers have to go with Manny. Perhaps, the Dodgers had something working with Manny so they told Abreu and Dunn no.  Or maybe the Dodgers really are limited to Manny. Either way, it sure does look nice from the Boras point of view.

So – you heard it here fourth – check out the Dodgers website tomorrow – here’s hoping at least Manny is in Blue tomorrow.

Manny Ramirez from the LA Times - Wally Skalij

So all is quiet up here in San Francisco regarding Manny Ramirez. I think there was great hype, but now that the owner of the Giant’s made it clear it would be a long shot, most people don’t think it will happen for the Giant’s. This is fine for me. Now the issue becomes the Dodgers.

As all Dodger fans have had more time than they wanted to wonder on the status of Manny, a strange unwelcome thought keeps coming back to my mind. What if the Dodgers really are the only team for Manny, and what if he feels like he has to “settle” to take their offer. There is only one thing any Dodger fan, and any team fears of Manny – him not being happy and wanting to leave. Manny feeling like he has to settle could be worse than anything we have seen Manny do to this point.

So I started to think about this negotiation. The Dodgers want 2 years and 45 mil. Manny wants 4 years and 100 million. He wants to retire with a team and be done, but go out with way more money that he could have gotten in Boston. He wants the respect he feels he deserves and he wants to get paid for what he did at the end of last year. The Dodgers want him, but they don’t want to outbid themselves, so they hold tight.

If you split the wants down the middle, you end up with 3 years and just under 75 mil. Not cheap, but a good negotiation spot. The issue is that Manny feels he has 4 years left, so 3 years isn’t desirable. For the Dodgers – if he can play, 3 years is fine, but borderline too long if he doesn’t want to be there. Also, the Dodgers are obviously gun-shy about aging, injured players who can’t produce, so they want to avoid beyond 2 years.

Here’s my personal opinion. Manny wants the money and he wants to be up their with A-rod. Honestly, I think he wants to make more than A-rod. I think if the Dodgers offered 2 years at 25 – 27.5 mil, Manny would listen hard. There is something about security, but in this world of topping the best guy, being able to say you got more than A-rod has a nice ring.

I think Manny should take the 2 years at 27 mil and request a 3rd year option based on at bats in the second year, with a full no trade clause and an opt out at 2 years. The Dodgers want him to be happy, that gives him flexibility and bragging rights. Plus, that’s really good money. If he can light it up, he can easily get 2 more years with either the Dodgers or somewhere in the American league. He has to settle on time, but I do believe he wants to be with the Dodgers. If he can accept less time, but for more money, I bet a common ground could be reached.

I think Manny has already made up his mind, but Boras wants him to hold out a little longer. They know the Dodger offer will always be there. If they can come back with something, the Dodgers will flex, and get him in. It’s important to feel wanted somewhere and feel like you will be making good money. If the Dodgers main goal is 2 years, then they need to ante up to sweeten the deal. If Manny wants to wipe away his old baggage, he has to accept more money, but know he will need a new contract in 2 years.

Manny Ramirez from the San Francisco Chronicle - Jed Jacobsohn Getty Images

The Giants and Dodgers went up the hill to catch Manny Ramirez.  The Giants and Dodgers came tumbling down and Manny came smiling after…

So this whole discussion of Manny with the Dodgers or Giants is hilarious.  It’s all people talk about here in San Francisco, but no one really knows what’s going on.  (Do you ever wonder if the GM’s and Scott Boras laugh at all us peons trying to figure them out?)

Good article in the Chronicle on what people think up here on him.  44% say he should come, but at a short contract.  Sound like anyone we know in LA?

Funny post by Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.  It really is weird how some people are “convinced” that there has been an offer, where there are others who are “convinced” that nothing is going down.

Either way – if all the newspapers and nightly news shows are covering it up here, something’s going down. Mark my word Dodger fans – the Giant’s are in this game. They would love to steal Manny and Boras would love to show Colletti how bad he felt the Dodgers first offer was.  At the same time, Boras wants top dollar, so he won’t have any problem with the Giant’s entering the ring only so the Dodgers can win the fight.

I found this video by a senior sports writer for the SF Chronicle, and I think he’s got it right.  He’s thinks the Giant’s are listening, but no offers yet.  He has a real interesting ending.  I’ll give you a hint…it’s good for the Blue.