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So, I love Dodger Blogs. I’m biased because I’m writing one, but I really do like them. When you live far away from local Dodger news, anytime you can grab a morsel and feel close to the Mother Ship, you just feel home again.

This is especially true on a day like today. Why today, the eleventh of February, in the year of our Lord 2009? Well, according to three different blogs, the Dodgers are going to sign Manny Ramirez by tomorrow, as well as Orlando Hudson. Will it happen? Who knows, but the suspense is great.

Here was my route:

I started on Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness which let me back to MLBRumors.com.

This is on the Dodger News page, but they didn’t break the story, the East Valley Tribune did here.

I also saw it on Dodger Dugout.  Once you see it three times, it’s good enough for me.  I never would have seen this if I was just going to Foxsports, or the Dodgers website.

There’s a lot of weight on this rumor, but if he comes through, the guy will forever establish himself as legitimate. If he doesn’t, not a huge party foul, because the hope of it happening was great, and how can he really control the actions of the Dodgers and especially Manny?

Nice points to Scott Boras today. Abreu signs with the Angels and Dunn signs with the Nationals. This means the Dodgers have to go with Manny. Perhaps, the Dodgers had something working with Manny so they told Abreu and Dunn no.  Or maybe the Dodgers really are limited to Manny. Either way, it sure does look nice from the Boras point of view.

So – you heard it here fourth – check out the Dodgers website tomorrow – here’s hoping at least Manny is in Blue tomorrow.

Manny Ramirez from La Times - Anne Cusack

So it seems like Manny is all I write about these days, but if you’ve read any sports website lately, that’s all they write about too.  It seems the Giants are back in it…but then their GM set the expectation today that they’re really not in it for the money or length people thing.

I recently wrote that Manny’s money could be used elsewhere, but today I was trying to put myself in Manny’s shoes.  The baseball world is scared of Manny being disappointed in the price or years, and therefore quitting in the middle of a contract.  The only way it seems that Manny is really going to be excited about his new deal is if he truly gets 4 years.  That’s what he wants, and if he gets it (even he knows it’s a little bit of a stretch), then he will start happy (I’ll come back to finishing happy later).  I know when I was looking for a job a few years ago, I had my number, and when they gave it to me, I went in happy and was ready to work.  There were higher expectations because it was a higher number than they initially wanted to give, but I did good work, and they weren’t disappointed in the end.

So here’s the question, how can the Dodgers safely give Manny 4 years?  I don’t think the real issue is money here.  25 mil for 4 years will pay itself off if the Dodgers get to the playoffs all 4 years.  Great article on SI.com on how Manny is one of the winningest players of all time.  Manny will bring people to the stadium, so the cost can be there.

The concern for the Dodgers is two-fold.  One his age.  He is 36.  At 40, how bad will his defense be?  Second, what happens if he is sick of LA after 2 years and wants out.  Then what?

So how do you compensate for these two?  Regarding age, you are limited.  He hasn’t had a lot of injuries, but he has had some.  You can’t really move him around the diamond, so he’ll still be in left field.

Regarding liking it in LA, that’s a wildcard because anything could change the circumstances.  If the fans turn on him because the Dodgers aren’t winning, or Manny is in a slump, then he may want out too.

The key factor here is that both sides need the opportunity to change if circumstances change.  I see the value of the Dodgers holding at least a limited trade clause if they need to trade him.  The problem then becomes the 25 mil per season.

Go with me on this one.  A 4 year deal worth 100 mil.  After year 2, and for every year after that, there is the ability to walk away for both sides.  It could be an opt out for Manny, or a cessation of contract for the Dodgers.  It will be hard for Manny to get 25 mil anywhere else as he ages, so there is incentive to stay.  For the Dodgers, they have an out if he doesn’t want to stay.

From Manny’s point of view, he won’t want to be dumped if he doesn’t want it.  Therefore, perhaps there is language that the only way the Dodgers can dump him is if he mutually wants out, he was injured and missed a certain number of games, or if there are at least 2 “incidents” during the year that lead to voiding of the contract.  These would be sticky to define, but I’m talking injury to Dodger staff or media, sitting out games due to “false injury,” etc. (Basically similar to what happened in Boston.)

The other option I thought about would be if the money somehow rolled forward based on the first 2 years.  Say it is a 4 year deal worth 100 mil, but if the Dodgers make the World Series the first year, he gets say 35 mil.  Similar the second year.  The Dodgers would have more money due to the World Series attendance, and it would pull money off the 100 mil in case there needed to be a trade in years 3 or 4.

Bottom line, Manny wants guarenteed money, but even he knows circumstances can change.  I really do think he wants to play for the Dodgers, so I bet he’d be more flexible on these finer details if he really does get 4 years and 100 mil.

Let me know your thoughts.  I think we need to help Ned with some options here to help get this deal done.

Manny Ramirez from Dodgers.com

So I’m a fan of Manny.  I really am.  What he did for the Dodgers last year changed the whole season and gave hope to the fans.  He was the hero we’ve all wanted, and he was clutch in every way.  Having said that, I believe the fans were move motivated by the winning and his clutch-ness, than just Manny alone.  He was his own personality, which people liked, but the fans liked more that the Dodgers were winning.  If the Dodgers have Manny, and they take 3rd place, it’s a totally different discussion.

So now that Manny has rejected offer number 3, it’s time to move on.  At a certain point, it’s obvious if sides will come to meet in-between.  That doesn’t seem to be the case with Manny and the Dodgers.  I give the Dodgers credit for holding their stance to a short term contract and knowing the market.  Even more, they have come from different angles, but Manny hasn’t changed his stance.

I personally like the idea of signing Wolf, Sheets, Hudson and Dunn to 1 year deals worth 8 mil each.  Yes, the 32 mil is worth more than the 25 for Manny, but taking the budget from ~65 mil to ~97 isn’t that bad considering all the holes are met.  You get pitching – #1.  You get a bat – Dunn.  You get a solid second bat in Hudson.  Worst case, you have too much pitching, but I don’t know that this is a bad thing.  Since Sheets and Wolf and Schmidt are all wildcards, if you need to move them in and out of a bullpen role, there is always that flexibility.

Just for fun – I did a comparison from MLB.com.

Dunn:

Hudson:

Ramirez:

Interesting results.  Adding Dunn and Hudson does give most of what Ramirez could give, but without the Average.  Manny still rules on that count.  When it comes to clutch-factor…you can’t really measure that, and it’s hard to say either of those guys will match Manny.

Manny would be the first choice, especially at 1 yr and 25 mil; but for 3 or 4 years at 25 mil, it just isn’t going to happen.  Old baggage doesn’t leave quickly, and what Manny did is finally coming back to haunt him.

So what do you think Dodger Fans – take the poll below and tell me if you think the Dodgers should move on.

Manny Ramirez from the LA Times - Wally Skalij

So all is quiet up here in San Francisco regarding Manny Ramirez. I think there was great hype, but now that the owner of the Giant’s made it clear it would be a long shot, most people don’t think it will happen for the Giant’s. This is fine for me. Now the issue becomes the Dodgers.

As all Dodger fans have had more time than they wanted to wonder on the status of Manny, a strange unwelcome thought keeps coming back to my mind. What if the Dodgers really are the only team for Manny, and what if he feels like he has to “settle” to take their offer. There is only one thing any Dodger fan, and any team fears of Manny – him not being happy and wanting to leave. Manny feeling like he has to settle could be worse than anything we have seen Manny do to this point.

So I started to think about this negotiation. The Dodgers want 2 years and 45 mil. Manny wants 4 years and 100 million. He wants to retire with a team and be done, but go out with way more money that he could have gotten in Boston. He wants the respect he feels he deserves and he wants to get paid for what he did at the end of last year. The Dodgers want him, but they don’t want to outbid themselves, so they hold tight.

If you split the wants down the middle, you end up with 3 years and just under 75 mil. Not cheap, but a good negotiation spot. The issue is that Manny feels he has 4 years left, so 3 years isn’t desirable. For the Dodgers – if he can play, 3 years is fine, but borderline too long if he doesn’t want to be there. Also, the Dodgers are obviously gun-shy about aging, injured players who can’t produce, so they want to avoid beyond 2 years.

Here’s my personal opinion. Manny wants the money and he wants to be up their with A-rod. Honestly, I think he wants to make more than A-rod. I think if the Dodgers offered 2 years at 25 – 27.5 mil, Manny would listen hard. There is something about security, but in this world of topping the best guy, being able to say you got more than A-rod has a nice ring.

I think Manny should take the 2 years at 27 mil and request a 3rd year option based on at bats in the second year, with a full no trade clause and an opt out at 2 years. The Dodgers want him to be happy, that gives him flexibility and bragging rights. Plus, that’s really good money. If he can light it up, he can easily get 2 more years with either the Dodgers or somewhere in the American league. He has to settle on time, but I do believe he wants to be with the Dodgers. If he can accept less time, but for more money, I bet a common ground could be reached.

I think Manny has already made up his mind, but Boras wants him to hold out a little longer. They know the Dodger offer will always be there. If they can come back with something, the Dodgers will flex, and get him in. It’s important to feel wanted somewhere and feel like you will be making good money. If the Dodgers main goal is 2 years, then they need to ante up to sweeten the deal. If Manny wants to wipe away his old baggage, he has to accept more money, but know he will need a new contract in 2 years.

Manny Ramirez from the San Francisco Chronicle - Jed Jacobsohn Getty Images

The Giants and Dodgers went up the hill to catch Manny Ramirez.  The Giants and Dodgers came tumbling down and Manny came smiling after…

So this whole discussion of Manny with the Dodgers or Giants is hilarious.  It’s all people talk about here in San Francisco, but no one really knows what’s going on.  (Do you ever wonder if the GM’s and Scott Boras laugh at all us peons trying to figure them out?)

Good article in the Chronicle on what people think up here on him.  44% say he should come, but at a short contract.  Sound like anyone we know in LA?

Funny post by Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.  It really is weird how some people are “convinced” that there has been an offer, where there are others who are “convinced” that nothing is going down.

Either way – if all the newspapers and nightly news shows are covering it up here, something’s going down. Mark my word Dodger fans – the Giant’s are in this game. They would love to steal Manny and Boras would love to show Colletti how bad he felt the Dodgers first offer was.  At the same time, Boras wants top dollar, so he won’t have any problem with the Giant’s entering the ring only so the Dodgers can win the fight.

I found this video by a senior sports writer for the SF Chronicle, and I think he’s got it right.  He’s thinks the Giant’s are listening, but no offers yet.  He has a real interesting ending.  I’ll give you a hint…it’s good for the Blue.